Posts Tagged ‘maple syrup’
|Your pancakes are safe from climate change
Monday, October 12th, 2009
Believe it or not, there is serious scientific debate about the fate of U.S. maple syrup production with climate warming. Some studies have used data showing that sap production is inversely related to temperature to argue that a warmer world bodes ill for U.S. syrup production. Others have focused on changes in temperature and precipitation, suggesting that shifting conditions in the Northeast might decrease sap production. Still others (Iverson et al. 2002) suggest that sugar maple trees might migrate into Canada with warming, leaving the New England market high and dry.
In the online first edition1,2 of Climatic Change (subscription required) Christopher Skinner and colleagues coupled climate models to plant physiology models to determine, explicitly, how sapflow up tree stems might change with warming.
Their results suggest that the optimal timing for sap collection will shift a full month earlier by 2100. Reductions in New England would occur only if sap collectors maintained their current collection schedules rather than adapting to a few weeks earlier.
Thus, sap collection season shifts earlier but there appears to be no net loss of sapflow. Maine stands to increase the number of sapflow days, so we might see maple syrup production redistribute across New England.
Bottom line: It looks like you can toss your plan to hoard maple syrup from Costco or shift to Aunt Jemima (which is corn syrup). And come visit Maine for that pancake breakfast.
1Skinner, C.B., et al. (2009) Implications of twenty-first century climate change on Northeastern United States maple syrup production: impacts and adaptations. Climatic Change (online first edition)
2Bowdoin people can link to article here.
Tags: climate change, maple syrup
Posted in climate change science, food and agriculture | No Comments »
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