Global ChangeIntersection of Nature and Culture

In this week’s issue of Science: Oil shortages in 10 years, peak oil in 20

Friday, November 20th, 2009

I usually don’t pay much attention to discussions of peak oil because of the significant challenges and huge uncertainties in predicting it.  Then I moved to New England where home heating with oil is insanely expensive.  As anyone in Maine can tell you, it really makes you attuned to price shocks.

Richard Kerr describes¹ a recent report from the UK Energy Research Centre, which takes a middle ground between those who think that peak oil is imminent and optimists who think that new discoveries will provide lasting supplies.

The verdict?  Peak oil in two decades (2030).  Shortages in one (2020).

How will this affect our lives?  It likely depends on the longevity of the durable goods you own that use oil.  If you are a car owner, this might mean one more new car before gas prices go through the roof (unless your next car is electric).  If you heat with #2 oil, it means switching to natural gas, propane, wood, or geothermal (or possibly renewable electricity) as soon as your boiler needs replacing, since they often last 20 years or longer.

Oil heating costs and gasoline prices of $4.00+/gallon in 2007-2008 are a painful reminder of the combination of oil shortages and rampant speculation.  Unfortunately, this may become the norm in about a decade, provided that our economy rebounds.

And as Amanda Little illustrates in her new book, Power Trip, everything we use that depends on oil, including food, plastics, and the military, may soon cost much more.

¹Kerr, R. (2009) Splitting the difference between oil pessimists and optimists. Science 326:1048.

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